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In a recent forum discussion, a user posted a commonly wrong tip that you just needed 12 - 14 bingoz coupons to win bingoz.
This tip has been repeated on at least 5 other webkinz sites - and shows that people don't check out what they read to make sure it is accurate (ultimately making me distrust all of the other tips).
You can figure out the probability of winning the game using mathematical analysis.
The probability of x marks on the card given y calls is easily calculated as combin(36,x)*combin(54,y-x)/combin(90,y).
BERT_X (2uncleBert) went ahead and did the calculation, showing the probability of getting bingo with each turn. A snippet of his post is in the box below:
Using that formula, I made a spreadsheet and entered the correct numbers for the Webkinz Bingoz game to create this table, shown below, of winning percentages for each Bingoz ball drawn.
The chances of winning Wacky Bingoz by using just 14 coupons (plus the one free ball, for a total of 15 balls) would be only 0.0113% -- about 1 in 8,850.
Winning percentage for #balls drawn in Bingoz
- 0%
- 0%
- 0%
- 0%
- 0%
- 00.0000023%
- 00.000016%
- 00.000063%
- 00.0002%
- 00.0005%
- 00.0010%
- 00.0021%
- 00.0039%
- 00.0068%
- 00.0113%
- 00.0180%
- 00.0278%
- 00.0417%
- 00.0610%
- 00.0871%
- 00.1219%
- 00.1676%
- 00.2267%
- 00.3022%
- 00.3975%
- 00.5164%
- 00.6635%
- 00.8438%
- 01.0628%
- 01.3269%
- 01.6429%
- 02.0185%
- 02.4619%
- 02.9820%
- 03.5886%
- 04.2918%
- 05.1025%
- 06.0318%
- 07.0916%
- 08.2934%
- 09.6493%
- 11.1709%
- 12.8692%
- 14.7545%
- 16.8361%
- 19.1214%
- 21.6159%
- 24.3226%
- 27.2414%
- 30.3686%
- 33.6966%
- 37.2135%
- 40.9021%
- 44.7407%
- 48.7021%
- 52.7541%
- 56.8599%
- 60.9783%
- 65.0651%
- 69.0739%
- 72.9573%
- 76.6693%
- 80.1662%
- 83.4093%
- 86.3661%
- 89.0124%
- 91.3334%
- 93.3245%
- 94.9916%
- 96.3504%
- 97.4257%
- 98.2492%
- 98.8570%
- 99.2876%
- 99.5787%
- 99.7655%
- 99.8782%
- 99.9417%
- 99.9746%
- 99.9902%
- 99.9967%
- 99.9991%
- 99.9998%
- 99.999963%
- 100%
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This results show that around 55 balls, you have a 50% chance of winning, and your odds are best when you get over 90% (around 66 balls).
I personally don't play until I get 84 coupons -- which means that I have a 100% chance of winning (and will probably have around 30 coupons left over when I am done -- a start on the next victory).
So, what is the lesson here?
Well, there are a few. First, playing Bingoz on a day to day basis is probably a waste, because the vast majority of the winners are people who save coupons.
Second, you have to collect a sizable amount of coupons to ensure victory. It would be a shame to collect 55 coupons, play, and not win (because the odds weren't in your favor).
Third, don't pass along information without trying to verify it. Even when you see multiple sites repeat the same information, it still may not be correct. Passing it along as if it were fact is as bad as the people who send out spammy emails about Microsoft sending money to you (or even a good charity case like a dying kid) as long as you forward to as many people as you can. Essentially, you are lying to the people who are reading the tip (and lying to your friends whose email boxes you are inundating with bad information). So, take the time to check before you pass info along. With Bingoz, it would be easy to check this -- just collect 14 and play - and then see how far you are from winning. It might look like you just need 2 or 3 more balls to win, but the probabilities are really against you.
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